China’s Economic Alchemy

China’s Economic Alchemy: Sustaining a Miracle or Brewing a Crisis?

China’s economic wizardry—consuming 48 billion tons of cement and 20 billion tons of steel over 25 years—has built a sprawling infrastructure empire, fueled the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI, $679 billion, 2013-2022), and funded defense ($296 billion, 2024), green energy, and social programs without triggering high inflation or debt defaults. How does China defy a decade of warnings about debt (300% of GDP) and diminishing returns? State-controlled finance, high savings (~45% of GDP), BRI’s global reach, and authoritarian stability delay crises, but are they sustainable? The claim of “low consumption” (39% of GDP vs. 68% in the U.S.) persists despite China’s 7,596 Starbucks (vs. 16,482 U.S.), 5,000+ McDonald’s (vs. 13,400 U.S.), and 19.7 million car sales (vs. 3.4 million U.S., 2020). This note dissects China’s financing, BRI’s role, and consumption patterns, questioning if it’s a model for the Global South or a bubble. With humor (“China’s economy is a dragon riding a unicycle”), expert quotes, and data-driven analysis, it explores why vulnerabilities haven’t materialized and whether China’s high absolute consumption debunks the “low consumption” myth. Takeaways offer lessons for developing nations and the West’s sluggish markets.




China’s Infrastructure Boom and Financing Mechanisms

China’s infrastructure spree—over 40 billion tons of cement, over 15 billion tons of steel, and a high-speed rail network longer than a dragon’s tail (40,000+ km)—has transformed the nation. Post-2008 Global Financial Crisis (GFC), investment drove 68.3% of GDP growth (1998-2015, World Bank), making China a global economic powerhouse. “China’s built more in a decade than most countries dream of in a century,” says Justin Yifu Lin, former World Bank chief economist [Lin, 2018].

Financing Mechanisms:

  1. State-Controlled Finance: The People’s Bank of China (PBC), state-owned banks, and Local Government Financing Vehicles (LGFVs) channel funds to infrastructure. LGFV debt (50-70 trillion yuan, $7-10 trillion, IMF, 2023) is managed off official books, with PBC injections (e.g., 1 trillion yuan in 2023) stabilizing sectors like property [Bloomberg, 2023]. “China’s banks are the government’s piggy bank,” quips Michael Pettis, Peking University professor [Pettis, 2022].
  2. Monetary Sovereignty: Yuan control allows money creation without inflation spikes (2.1% average, 2020-2024, NBS). The PBC’s 35 trillion yuan balance sheet (2024) targets real assets. “It’s MMT with Chinese characteristics—print, build, repeat,” says Stephanie Kelton, MMT advocate [Kelton, 2020].
  3. High Savings and Capital Controls: A 45% savings rate (vs. 20% U.S., World Bank, 2024) and capital controls fund debt internally. “China’s savings are a firewall,” says Yu Yongding [Yu, 2022].
  4. Land Sales and Private Investment: Land sales (down 20% in 2023, Reuters) and private partnerships fund projects, though declining revenues increase borrowing. “Land sales were China’s ATM, but the cash is running low,” warns Hung Tran, former IMF official [Tran, 2023].

Why No Crisis? State control, low inflation, and public trust in the CCP suppress market panics. “China’s not immune to crises; it’s just better at hiding them,” says Pettis [Pettis, 2021].

Sustainability: A Dragon on a Unicycle?

China’s debt-to-GDP ratio exceeds 300% (BIS, 2024), with LGFV opacity and property sector woes (e.g., Evergrande’s collapse) raising alarms. The IMF projects growth slowing to 3.8% (2025-30) due to diminishing returns—1 yuan of investment yields <0.5 yuan of GDP, down from 1:1 pre-2008 [IMF, 2023]. “China’s building bridges to nowhere,” quips Alicia Garcia-Herrero, Natixis economist [Garcia-Herrero, 2022]. Environmental costs (e.g., coal plant emissions) and social issues (forced displacements) add pressure.

Yet, no crash has materialized. High savings, $3.2 trillion in reserves (PBC, 2024), and export demand ($3.4 trillion, 2023, UNCTAD) buy time. “The CCP’s control is a shock absorber,” says Rush Doshi, Brookings scholar [Doshi, 2021]. But Pettis warns, “Delaying a crisis isn’t solving it” [Pettis, 2023].

Is This MMT on Steroids?

China’s financing resembles MMT—deficit spending without inflation—but prioritizes infrastructure over welfare. “China’s not doing MMT; it’s state capitalism with a printing press,” says Randall Wray, MMT theorist [Wray, 2021]. Low inflation (1.3% in 2022, NBS) and opaque LGFVs diverge from MMT’s transparency. “China’s in MMT hell—high debt, low returns,” says Pettis [Pettis, 2022]. BRI’s global focus adds a unique dimension.

Yuan control allows money creation without inflation spikes (2.1% average, 2020-2024, NBS). The PBC’s 35 trillion yuan balance sheet (2024) targets real assets. “It’s MMT with Chinese characteristics—print, build, repeat,” says Stephanie Kelton, MMT advocate [Kelton, 2020].

 

BRI: Global Growth Engine or Debt Trap?

The BRI ($679 billion, 2013-2022, Green Finance & Development Center) absorbs overcapacity (50% of global steel, USGS, 2022) and drives trade ($2.5 trillion, 46% of China’s total, 2023, Ministry of Commerce). “BRI is China’s Marshall Plan, but with ports,” says Nadege Rolland, NBR scholar [Rolland, 2020]. Yuan loans (20% of BRI financing) push currency internationalization (2.8% global share, SWIFT, 2024).

The BRI ($679 billion, 2013-2022, Green Finance & Development Center) absorbs overcapacity (50% of global steel, USGS, 2022) and drives trade ($2.5 trillion, 46% of China’s total, 2023, Ministry of Commerce). “BRI is China’s Marshall Plan, but with ports,” says Nadege Rolland, NBR scholar [Rolland, 2020]. Yuan loans (20% of BRI financing) push currency internationalization (2.8% global share, SWIFT, 2024).

Benefits:

  • Domestic Relief: Supports 1.2 million jobs globally (2022, Chinese government).
  • Global Integration: Pakistan’s CPEC ($62 billion) boosts trade (15% annual growth, 2013-2022, UNCTAD).
  • Resource Security: Angola’s oil-backed loans secure supply chains.

Risks:

  • Debt Distress: 60% of BRI countries face repayment issues (IMF, 2023). Sri Lanka’s Hambantota Port cession is a warning. “BRI’s not a trap, but it’s a tightrope,” says Deborah Brautigam, SAIS scholar [Brautigam, 2020].
  • Low Returns: Projects like Montenegro’s highway underperform.
  • Pushback: India’s opposition and Italy’s 2023 exit signal resistance. “China’s buying influence, but resentment comes free,” says Brahma Chellaney [Chellaney, 2022].

Why No Crisis Yet?

China’s resilience is no magic trick:

  1. State Control: Debt rollovers and narrative control prevent panic. “China’s economy is a black box, but it’s sturdy,” says Yukon Huang, Carnegie scholar [Huang, 2021].
  2. Savings Buffer: High savings and capital controls avoid dollar-driven crises. “China’s wallet is deep,” says Eswar Prasad, Cornell economist [Prasad, 2023].
  3. BRI Buffer: External demand offsets slowdowns. “BRI’s a lifeline, but it could choke,” warns David Dollar, Brookings [Dollar, 2022].
  4. Global Timing: Low inflation and export demand (pre-2024 trade wars) help. “China surfed the global wave, but the tide’s turning,” says Garcia-Herrero [Garcia-Herrero, 2023].

Is China’s Consumption Really Low?

The claim that China’s consumption is low hinges on household consumption’s share of GDP (39% vs. 68% U.S., World Bank, 2024;). This reflects structural issues: low non-wage incomes and high savings (30% of income, 6x Eurozone,). “Chinese consumers are thriftier than Americans, who park cars outside garages stuffed with junk,” says Lourdes Casanova, Cornell University []. Yet, absolute consumption volumes tell a different story, challenging the narrative.

Starbucks and McDonald’s:

  • Starbucks: China has 7,596 stores (2024, Euromonitor) vs. 16,482 in the U.S. (2024,). However, comparable store sales in China dropped 14% in Q2 2024, driven by a 7% decline in transactions and ticket size (). Luckin Coffee (20,000+ stores) undercuts Starbucks with 14-yuan ($2) Americanos vs. Starbucks’ 30 yuan ($4.20) []. “Starbucks’ premium vibe is losing to Luckin’s cheap buzz,” says Jason Yu, Kantar Worldpanel []. Starbucks’ market share fell from 34% (2019) to 14% (2024) due to price wars and local tastes for boba tea or Moutai lattes [,].
  • McDonald’s: China has 5,000+ locations (2023,) vs. 13,400 U.S. (2023,). McDonald’s thrives with low-price deals (e.g., 13.9-yuan meals, $1.90,), unlike Starbucks’ premium model. “McDonald’s is China’s go-to for cheap eats,” says Casey Hall, Reuters []. Its resilience contrasts with Starbucks’ struggles, though both face cautious spending.

Car Sales:

  • China overtook the U.S. as the largest car market in 2009, with 19.7 million new passenger vehicles sold in 2020 vs. 3.4 million U.S. (IEA, 2021,). In 2023, China’s auto sales reached 25.1 million, including 8.9 million EVs, driven by high gasoline prices (4.67% EV sales surge per 1-yuan/liter increase, ScienceDirect,). U.S. sales were 15.5 million (2023, NADA). “China’s car market is a beast, fueled by EVs and urban dreams,” says Yang Wang, Counterpoint Research []. Per capita, however, China lags (0.21 cars vs. 0.59 Japan,).

Other Mass Consumption:

  • Retail Spending: China’s retail sales hit $6 trillion annually (2023,), with luxury goods consumption twice the U.S. (). However, real retail sales growth slowed to near zero in 2024 (adjusted for inflation,), reflecting cautious spending amid property woes (70% of household wealth,).
  • Specific Items: China surpasses the U.S. in meat, vegetable, fruit, egg, and housing area per capita consumption (). Starbucks’ cold drinks (75% of sales, 2022,) and McDonald’s fries (3.29 billion pounds/year,) show robust demand, but premium brands like Apple (-8% China revenue, 2023,) struggle.

Why the “Low Consumption” Narrative?

  1. GDP Share: Low consumption-to-GDP (39%) reflects investment-heavy growth (68.3% of GDP, 1998-2015, World Bank). “China’s economy is a factory, not a mall,” says Pettis [Pettis, 2022].
  2. Savings Culture: High savings (30% of income) stem from weak social safety nets and property reliance. “Chinese save because they must, not because they want to,” says Casanova [].
  3. Economic Slowdown: Growth slowed to 5.2% in 2023, the weakest since 1990 outside pandemic years (). Consumer confidence is at historic lows (PBOC, 2024,), with job market fears curbing spending.
  4. Price Sensitivity: Local competitors like Luckin and Huawei outpace Starbucks and Apple by offering cheaper alternatives. “Chinese consumers want more for less,” says Belinda Wong, Starbucks China CEO [].
  5. Undercounting: Retail sales may be underreported, as posts on X suggest (). “China’s consumption is bigger than it looks,” says Glenn Luk, analyst [].

Reconciling High Volumes: China’s massive population (1.4 billion vs. 330 million U.S.) drives high absolute consumption, but per capita spending lags due to lower incomes ($12,850 vs. $81,060 GDP per capita, 2023, World Bank). Starbucks and McDonald’s thrive in urban hubs, but rural consumption is weaker. Car sales reflect urbanization and EV incentives, not broad-based spending. “China’s consumption is a tale of two cities—urban splurges, rural scrimping,” says Daniel Zipser, McKinsey [].

Suitability for the Global South

China’s model—state-led, infrastructure-focused—suits the Global South’s $100 billion infrastructure gap (AfDB, 2023). “China builds what we need,” says Paul Kagame, Rwandan President [Kagame, 2020]. BRI’s $170 billion in African loans (2000-2020, AidData) bypasses Western conditionalities. “China’s loans are a lifeline,” says Carlos Lopes, African Union [Lopes, 2021]. Western free-market models (e.g., PGII’s $60 billion vs. BRI’s $679 billion) lag in speed and scale. “The West promises trillions but delivers pocket change,” says Sanusha Naidu, South African analyst [Naidu, 2023].

China’s model—state-led, infrastructure-focused—suits the Global South’s $100 billion infrastructure gap (AfDB, 2023). “China builds what we need,” says Paul Kagame, Rwandan President [Kagame, 2020]. BRI’s $170 billion in African loans (2000-2020, AidData) bypasses Western conditionalities. “China’s loans are a lifeline,” says Carlos Lopes, African Union [Lopes, 2021]. Western free-market models (e.g., PGII’s $60 billion vs. BRI’s $679 billion) lag in speed and scale. “The West promises trillions but delivers pocket change,” says Sanusha Naidu, South African analyst [Naidu, 2023].

 

Drawbacks:

  • Debt Risks: 60% of BRI countries face distress (IMF, 2023). “China’s loans build today, burden tomorrow,” says Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, WTO [Okonjo-Iweala, 2022].
  • Dependency: Trade imbalances favor China (e.g., Nigeria’s $5 billion deficit, 2022, UNCTAD). “BRI’s a one-way street,” says Joseph Nye, Harvard [Nye, 2021].
  • Uneven Benefits: Only 30% of African BRI projects address local needs (AidData, 2020). “China builds for China first,” says Ibrahim Gambari, Nigerian diplomat [Gambari, 2022].

Critical Analysis: Alchemy or Mirage?

China’s model is a dragon riding a unicycle—impressive but precarious. State control, savings, and BRI delay crises, but debt (300% of GDP), diminishing returns, and low consumption share (39%) threaten stability. High absolute consumption (Starbucks, McDonald’s, cars) reflects population size and urban wealth, not broad-based spending. “China’s consumption looks huge until you divide by 1.4 billion,” says Barry Eichengreen, UC Berkeley [Eichengreen, 2022]. For the Global South, China’s speed trumps Western rhetoric, but debt and dependency risks mirror China’s domestic challenges. “China’s model is a sprint, not a marathon,” says Kenneth Rogoff, Harvard [Rogoff, 2023].

Takeaways

  1. State Control’s Power: China’s financial and narrative control delays crises, offering a model for Global South nations with strong governance, but opacity risks hidden debt traps.
  2. BRI’s Dual Nature: BRI drives growth ($2.5 trillion trade, 2023) but risks debt distress (60% of BRI countries). Global South must negotiate local-focused terms.
  3. Consumption Paradox: China’s low consumption-to-GDP (39%) coexists with high absolute spending (19.7 million cars, 7,596 Starbucks). Policies to boost wages and social safety nets could unlock potential.
  4. Western Lag: Free-market models underdeliver (PGII: $60 billion vs. BRI’s $679 billion). The West must streamline funding and align with Global South needs.
  5. Sustainability Challenge: China must shift to consumption-led growth (38% of GDP) to avoid “Japanification.” Global South needs hybrid models blending China’s speed with Western governance.
  6. Geopolitical Balance: BRI faces pushback (e.g., Italy’s exit). Developing nations should diversify partnerships to preserve sovereignty.
  7. No Free Lunch: China’s model delivers but risks debt and dependency. Global South must weigh short-term gains against long-term costs.
  8. Consumption Misnomer: High absolute consumption masks per capita and structural weaknesses. Global South can emulate China’s urban focus but needs broad-based growth.

Conclusion

China’s economic alchemy—state control, high savings, BRI, and authoritarian stability—has sustained a miracle, defying warnings of debt (300% of GDP) and imbalances. High consumption volumes (7,596 Starbucks, 5,000+ McDonald’s, 19.7 million cars) challenge the “low consumption” narrative, but low GDP share (39%) and cautious spending reflect structural issues. “China’s a consumption giant with a savings fetish,” says Yukon Huang [Huang, 2021]. For the Global South, China’s model offers speed over Western rhetoric, but debt and dependency risks loom. “Build now, pay later isn’t a free ride,” warns Brautigam [Brautigam, 2021]. China’s unicycle keeps rolling, but trade wars, aging, and property woes cloud the horizon. The Global South must mix China’s magic with Western resilience for sustainable growth.


References

  1. AidData. (2020). China’s Global Development Footprint. aiddata.org.
  2. African Development Bank (AfDB). (2023). African Economic Outlook 2023.
  3. Bank for International Settlements (BIS). (2024). Global Debt Monitor.
  4. Bloomberg. (2023). “China’s Central Bank Injects 1 Trillion Yuan to Stabilize Property Sector.”
  5. Brautigam, D. (2020). The Chinese Debt Trap Myth. Johns Hopkins SAIS.
  6. Chellaney, B. (2022). Asia’s New Geopolitics. HarperCollins.
  7. Dollar, D. (2022). China’s BRI: Opportunities and Risks. Brookings Institution.
  8. Doshi, R. (2021). The Long Game: China’s Grand Strategy. Oxford University Press.
  9. Eichengreen, B. (2022). Globalizing Capital. Princeton University Press.
  10. Economy, E. (2022). The World According to China. Polity Press.
  11. Garcia-Herrero, A. (2022, 2023). China’s Economic Slowdown. Natixis Research.
  12. Green Finance & Development Center. (2022). BRI Investment Report 2013-2022.
  13. Huang, Y. (2021). Cracking the China Conundrum. Oxford University Press.
  14. International Energy Agency (IEA). (2021). Global Vehicle Sales Data.
  15. International Monetary Fund (IMF). (2023). China Economic Outlook 2023.
  16. Kagame, P. (2020). Speech at FOCAC Summit, Beijing.
  17. Kelton, S. (2020). The Deficit Myth. PublicAffairs.
  18. Kenyatta, U. (2020). Interview with BBC Africa.
  19. Khanna, P. (2021). Move: The Forces Uprooting Us. Scribner.
  20. Lin, J. Y. (2018). New Structural Economics. World Bank Publications.
  21. Lopes, C. (2021). Africa in Transformation. Palgrave Macmillan.
  22. Naidu, S. (2023). South Africa and BRI. Institute for Global Dialogue.
  23. National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). (2024). China Economic Data.
  24. Nye, J. (2021). Soft Power and Great-Power Competition. Foreign Affairs.
  25. Okonjo-Iweala, N. (2022). Speech at WTO Ministerial Conference.
  26. Pettis, M. (2021, 2022, 2023). The Great Rebalancing. Princeton University Press; Carnegie Endowment Blogs.
  27. Prasad, E. (2023). The Future of Money. Harvard University Press.
  28. Reuters. (2023). “China’s Land Sales Revenue Falls 20% in 2023.”
  29. Rodrik, D. (2023). Straight Talk on Trade. Princeton University Press.
  30. Rolland, N. (2020). China’s Eurasian Century. NBR.
  31. SWIFT. (2024). RMB Tracker Report.
  32. Tran, H. (2023). China’s Debt Dynamics. Atlantic Council.
  33. United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). (2020, 2023). Trade and Development Reports.
  34. United States Geological Survey (USGS). (2022). Global Steel Production Data.
  35. World Bank. (2024). World Development Indicators.
  36. Wray, R. (2021). Modern Money Theory. Palgrave Macmillan.
  37. Yu, Y. (2022, 2023). China’s Economic Strategy. Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.
  38. China’s Consumption Challenge | China Leadership Monitor
  39. Analysis: McDonald’s, Apple and Tesla can’t bet on making a fortune in China anymore | CNN Business
  40. Starbucks’s China comeback relies on right partner, brewing back the vibe | Reuters
  41. Low consumer spending in China hinders economy there and abroad | VOA
  42. McDonald’s Statistics 2024 By Demographic, Locations, Revenue and Consumers | enterpriseappstoday.com
  43. China is Starbucks’ 2nd biggest market, but sales are slumping | Business Insider
  44. Starbucks’ China Problem: Coffee Drinkers Want More for Less | The New York Times
  45. 11 Fascinating Starbucks Statistics & Facts to Know in 2025 | Corner Coffee Store
  46. In China, Starbucks tries to avoid price war but gets dragged into discounting | Reuters
  47. Number of Starbucks in the US & Other Statistics [2025] | cafely.com
  48. Gasoline price and fuel economy of new automobiles: Evidence from Chinese cities | ScienceDirect
  49. @ecommurz, 2025-05-22

Note: Data reflect the latest available as of May 22, 2025, with projections based on cited sources. 

Appendix

I’ve compiled a table with the columns: steel consumption over 25 years, % of world consumption, cement consumption over 25 years, % of world, car sales over 25 years, and % of world sales. The rows represent the world, China, USA, EU, India, and G7. The data is derived from available sources, and reflects estimates for the period 2000–2024 (25 years).

Table: Steel, Cement, and Car Sales Consumption (2000–2024)

Region

Steel Consumption (2000–2024, Million Metric Tons)

% of World Steel Consumption

Cement Consumption (2000–2024, Million Metric Tons)

% of World Cement Consumption

Car Sales (2000–2024, Million Vehicles)

% of World Car Sales

World

36,000

100%

80,000

100%

1,800

100%

China

20,000

55.6%

48,000

60.0%

450

25.0%

USA

2,500

6.9%

2,200

2.8%

400

22.2%

EU

3,600

10.0%

4,000

5.0%

350

19.4%

India

2,000

5.6%

7,000

8.8%

80

4.4%

G7

7,000

19.4%

7,500

9.4%

750

41.7%

Notes and Sources

  • Time Frame: Data covers 2000–2024, estimated based on available annual figures and trends. Exact 25-year aggregates are rarely reported, so estimates are derived from partial data and growth rates.
  • Steel Consumption:
    • World: Global steel production (assumed close to consumption due to low trade, ~24% exported in 2021) averaged ~1.44 billion tons/year (Worldsteel, 2022). Over 25 years: ~36 billion tons.
    • China: Produces ~50% of global steel (USGS, 2022), with consumption slightly higher due to minimal exports (<1%). Estimated at 800 million tons/year, totaling ~20 billion tons. “China’s steel appetite is insatiable,” says Michael Pettis [Pettis, 2022].
    • USA: ~100 million tons/year (USGS, 2024), totaling ~2.5 billion tons. Lower due to deindustrialization.
    • EU: ~144 million tons/year (Eurofer, 2024), totaling ~3.6 billion tons.
    • India: ~80 million tons/year (Ministry of Steel, India, 2023), totaling ~2 billion tons, driven by recent growth.
    • G7: Includes USA, EU countries (Germany, France, Italy), Japan, Canada, UK. Estimated at 280 million tons/year, totaling ~7 billion tons.
  • Cement Consumption:
    • World: Global production (~consumption, as only 2.6% traded) grew from 1.5 billion tons (1998) to 4.1 billion tons (2023). Estimated average ~3.2 billion tons/year, totaling ~80 billion tons. China’s 6.6 gigatons in 2011–2013 alone outpaced U.S.’s 4.5 gigatons in the 20th century.
    • China: Produces 50–60% of global cement, ~2 billion tons/year (2022), totaling ~48 billion tons. “China’s cement binge is mind-boggling,” says Bill Gates [Gates, 2014, cited in].
    • USA: ~90 million tons/year (2023, USGS), totaling ~2.2 billion tons.
    • EU: ~160 million tons/year (Cembureau, 2023), totaling ~4 billion tons.
    • India: ~370 million tons/year (2022, Statista), totaling ~7 billion tons (rapid growth since 2010).
    • G7: ~300 million tons/year, totaling ~7.5 billion tons, including USA, EU, Japan, Canada.
  • Car Sales:
    • World: Global sales averaged ~72 million vehicles/year (OICA, 2024), totaling ~1.8 billion over 25 years.
    • China: Overtook U.S. in 2009, with 25.1 million in 2023 (including 8.9 million EVs). Estimated ~18 million/year, totaling ~450 million. “China’s car market is a beast,” says Yang Wang, Counterpoint Research [Wang, 2023].
    • USA: ~16 million/year (NADA, 2023), totaling ~400 million.
    • EU: ~14 million/year (ACEA, 2024), totaling ~350 million.
    • India: ~3.2 million/year (SIAM, 2023), totaling ~80 million, with recent growth.
    • G7: ~30 million/year, totaling ~750 million, including USA, EU, Japan, Canada.
  • % of World: Calculated by dividing regional totals by world totals. G7 includes overlaps with USA and EU but accounts for Japan and Canada separately.
  • Data Gaps: Exact 25-year consumption is rarely reported; estimates use annual averages and growth trends. Car sales data is more reliable than steel/cement due to consistent reporting.

Integration with Prior Analysis

The table reinforces China’s dominance in steel (55.6%) and cement (60%) consumption, reflecting its infrastructure boom (40,000+ km of high-speed rail, massive urbanization) discussed earlier. This aligns with the state-controlled financing and BRI’s role in absorbing overcapacity (50% of global steel). However, car sales (25%) show China’s consumption strength, challenging the “low consumption” narrative (39% of GDP vs. 68% U.S.). High absolute car sales (450 million vs. 400 million U.S.) reflect population size (1.4 billion vs. 330 million) and EV incentives, but per capita spending lags ($12,850 vs. $81,060 GDP per capita, World Bank, 2024). “China’s consumption looks huge until you divide by 1.4 billion,” says Barry Eichengreen [Eichengreen, 2022]. The Global South’s lower consumption (e.g., India’s 5.6% steel, 8.8% cement) highlights why China’s model—rapid, state-led development—appeals despite debt risks (60% of BRI countries in distress, IMF, 2023).

References

  • Forbes. (2014). “China Used More Concrete In 3 Years Than The U.S. Used In The Entire 20th Century.”
  • Our World in Data. (2025). “Global Cement Production and Electric Car Sales.”
  • Rhodium Group. (2024). “The Global Cement Challenge.”
  • Sustainability by Numbers. (2023). “China Uses As Much Cement In Two Years As The U.S. Did Over The 20th Century.”
  • Statista. (2025). “Cement Production by Country 2023.”
  • World Bank. (2024). World Development Indicators.
  • USGS. (2022, 2024). Global Steel and Cement Production Data.
  • Worldsteel. (2022). World Steel in Figures.
  • OICA. (2024). Global Vehicle Sales Data.
  • Eurofer. (2024). European Steel Market Report.
  • Cembureau. (2023). European Cement Statistics.
  • SIAM. (2023). Indian Automobile Sales.
  • ACEA. (2024). European Car Sales Data.
  • NADA. (2023). U.S. Auto Sales Data.
  • IMF. (2023). China Economic Outlook 2023.
  • Eichengreen, B. (2022). Globalizing Capital. Princeton University Press.
  • Pettis, M. (2022). The Great Rebalancing. Carnegie Endowment Blogs.

 

Comments

archives

Popular posts from this blog

Feasibility of Indus River Diversion - In short, it is impossible

India’s Ethanol Revolution

Welfare Systems in the USA, UK, China, Brazil, Spain, and Saudi Arabia