America’s Quiet Demographic Reckoning
Low fertility, rising longevity, and immigration are reshaping the nation faster than most realize The United States is living through one of the most consequential demographic transformations in its modern history. Birth rates have fallen well below the level needed to replace the existing population. People are living longer. And immigration has become the dominant source of population growth. These three forces—declining fertility, extended longevity, and sustained immigration—are interacting to produce an older, slower-growing, and more diverse society. The changes are already visible in the data and will define the country’s economic, fiscal, and social landscape for decades. The total fertility rate has settled near 1.6 children per woman, far below the 2.1 required for generational replacement in the absence of migration. This is not a brief interruption caused by recession or pandemic. The decline has continued through periods of economic expansion. Women are having childre...