India’s Maritime Transformation

India’s Maritime Transformation: Container Traffic and Port Development Outlook 2025-2035

Preamble

India’s maritime sector is undergoing a seismic shift, driven by its strategic location along global trade routes, a rapidly growing economy, and ambitious government initiatives like the Sagarmala Programme and Maritime India Vision 2030. With a coastline spanning over 7,500 km and handling 95% of its trade by volume, India is poised to become a global maritime hub. This note provides a comprehensive analysis of India’s container traffic growth projections for 2030 and 2035, assuming a growth rate half that of China’s over the past 15 years. It evaluates current and projected port capacities, the potential of deep draft ports in Kerala, Maharashtra, and Great Nicobar to capture transshipment cargo, and the investment landscape over the next decade. By integrating data, expert insights, and critical analysis, this report outlines realistic expectations, challenges, and opportunities for India’s maritime ambitions, with a focus on transshipment and sustainable development.

Container Traffic Growth Projections: 2030 and 2035

India’s container traffic has seen steady growth, fueled by increasing exports, imports, and policy reforms. In 2023, India’s container traffic was approximately 21 million TEUs (Twenty-foot Equivalent Units), compared to China’s 260 million TEUs. Over the past 15 years (2008-2023), China’s container traffic grew at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 10% (from ~100 million TEUs in 2008 to 260 million in 2023). Assuming India’s container traffic grows at half this rate, i.e., 5% CAGR, we can project future volumes.

• 2030 Projection: Starting from 21 million TEUs in 2023, a 5% CAGR over 7 years yields approximately 31.2 million TEUs by 2030.
• 2035 Projection: Extending this growth for another 5 years results in approximately 41.8 million TEUs by 2035.

“India’s container traffic is poised to grow at 4-6% annually over the next decade, driven by manufacturing growth and global trade integration,” says a 2024 report by Logistics Insider. However, achieving a sustained 5% CAGR will require robust infrastructure upgrades and efficient logistics ecosystems.

“The growth in container traffic is not just about numbers; it’s about India’s ability to integrate into global supply chains,” notes Dr. Sanjeev Ranjan, former Secretary of the Ministry of Ports, Shipping and Waterways. India’s ‘Make in India’ initiative and free trade agreements (FTAs) with countries like the UAE and Australia are expected to bolster export-driven container traffic.

Current Port Capacity and Expected Enhancements

As of 2025, India’s total port capacity is approximately 2,604 million metric tonnes per annum (MMTPA), with container-specific capacity estimated at 25 million TEUs across 13 major ports and over 200 non-major ports. Major ports like Jawaharlal Nehru Port Authority (JNPA) handle ~7.5 million TEUs annually, while Mundra Port, operated by Adani Ports, manages ~7.8 million TEUs. Non-major ports account for ~40% of container traffic, reflecting their growing role.

• Current Capacity (2025): ~25 million TEUs, with major ports contributing 60% and non-major ports 40%.
• 2030 Enhancement: The Sagarmala Programme aims to increase total port capacity to 3,300 MMTPA by 2030, with container capacity projected to reach 35 million TEUs. This includes expansions at JNPA, Mundra, and new ports like Vadhavan.
• 2035 Enhancement: By 2035, container capacity could reach 45 million TEUs, driven by mega-ports like Vadhavan (Maharashtra) and Galathea Bay (Great Nicobar), alongside modernization of existing facilities.

“India is expanding its port capacity more than sixfold to reach 10,000 million tonnes per annum by 2047,” states Union Minister Sarbananda Sonowal. Under Sagarmala, 206 modernization projects worth US$10.71 billion have been planned, with 81 completed and 59 underway as of 2024.

Key projects include:

• JNPA Expansion: Increasing capacity from 7.5 million TEUs to 10 million TEUs by 2030 through new terminals and dredging.
• Mundra Port: Scaling to 10 million TEUs by 2030 via private investment and automation.
• New Ports: Vadhavan (23 million TEUs by 2030) and Galathea Bay (4 million TEUs by 2028, scaling to 16 million by 2035).

“The upcoming ports at Vizhinjam and Vadhavan have natural drafts in excess of 18 meters, enabling ultra-large container vessels,” says a Ministry of Shipping official. By 2035, these ports could add 15-20 million TEUs to India’s capacity, addressing the gap between projected traffic (41.8 million TEUs) and current capacity.

Challenges include low capacity utilization (~44% for major ports, 57% for non-major ports). “Focus must shift to improving efficiency and utilization alongside capacity addition,” advises Sai Krishna, VP at ICRA.

Transshipment Potential via Deep Draft Ports

Approximately 75% of India’s transshipped cargo is currently handled at foreign ports like Colombo, Singapore, and Port Klang, costing US$200-220 million annually. Deep draft ports in Kerala (Vizhinjam), Maharashtra (Vadhavan), and Great Nicobar (Galathea Bay) are designed to capture this traffic, leveraging their proximity to international shipping routes and natural deepwater advantages.

Vizhinjam (Kerala)

• Status (2025): India’s first deepwater transshipment port, operational since July 2024, with a natural draft of 20 meters. Phase 1 handles 1 million TEUs, with full capacity of 6.2 million TEUs targeted by 2028-29.
• 2030 Outlook: Expected to handle 4-5 million TEUs, capturing 15-20% of India’s transshipment cargo. “Vizhinjam’s strategic location, just 10 nautical miles from global shipping routes, makes it a game-changer,” says Karan Adani, CEO of Adani Ports.
• 2035 Outlook: Full capacity of 6.2 million TEUs, potentially handling 25% of transshipment cargo, supported by automated terminals and inland connectivity.

Vadhavan (Maharashtra)

• Status (2025): Under development, with environmental clearances secured. Planned as India’s largest container facility, with a draft of 20-24 meters and capacity of 23 million TEUs by 2030.
• 2030 Outlook: Phase 1 (10 million TEUs) operational, handling both direct and transshipped cargo. “Vadhavan will transform India into a global shipping hub,” claims a JNPA official.
• 2035 Outlook: Full capacity, contributing 10-12 million TEUs annually, capturing 20-25% of transshipment traffic. Its proximity to Mumbai and Gujarat’s industrial hubs enhances its potential.

Galathea Bay (Great Nicobar)

• Status (2025): Pre-tender stage, with Stage I environmental clearance granted. Phase 1 (4 million TEUs) is expected by 2028.
• 2030 Outlook: Initial operations handling 2-3 million TEUs, targeting transshipment from East Asia and Southeast Asia. “Galathea Bay’s 20-meter draft and strategic location will save significant forex,” notes a Ministry of Shipping statement.
• 2035 Outlook: Scaling to 8-10 million TEUs, capturing 10-15% of transshipment cargo. Its role in India’s Act East Policy enhances its geopolitical significance.

By 2030, these ports could collectively capture 25-30% of India’s transshipped cargo, rising to 40-50% by 2035. “Competitive pricing and faster turnaround times are critical to competing with Colombo and Singapore,” warns an analyst from India Infra Hub. Current vessel turnaround time in India (0.9 days) is competitive but lags behind Singapore’s 0.8 days.

“India’s transshipment ambitions hinge on operational efficiency and digitalization,” says Sameer Bhatnagar, Partner at KPMG. The National Logistics Portal (Marine) and standardized processes under the One Nation One Port initiative aim to reduce delays.

Challenges include high logistics costs (14-16% of GDP vs. global 8-10%) and environmental concerns. “Port development must balance economic gains with ecological sustainability,” says a WWF-India representative.

Investment Landscape: 2025-2035

India plans to invest US$82 billion in port projects by 2035 under the Sagarmala Programme, with 574 projects identified. An additional US$1 trillion is estimated by 2047 to fully unlock the sector’s potential. Investments are categorized into public, private, and public-private partnership (PPP) models, with a focus on capacity augmentation, connectivity, and sustainability.

Next 5 Years (2025-2030)

• Total Investment: ~US$50 billion
• Breakdown:
• Port Modernization and New Ports: US$25 billion
• Vadhavan Port: US$5 billion for Phase 1 (10 million TEUs).
• Vizhinjam Phase 2: US$1.5 billion to reach 6.2 million TEUs.
• Galathea Bay Phase 1: US$2.2 billion for 4 million TEUs.
• JNPA and Mundra expansions: US$3 billion.
• Connectivity (Rail, Road, Inland Waterways): US$15 billion
• 90 port-rail projects (US$9 billion) and 101 road projects (US$6 billion) under Sagarmala.
• Digitalization and Sustainability: US$5 billion
• National Logistics Portal (Marine): US$500 million.
• Green port initiatives (Harit Sagar): US$2 billion for renewable energy and emission reduction.
• Shipbuilding and Repair: US$5 billion
• Maritime Development Fund (MDF): US$2.87 billion for shipyards.
• Shipbuilding Financial Assistance Policy (SBFAP 2.0): US$2.08 billion.
• Funding Sources:
• Government: US$20 billion via budgetary allocations and MDF.
• Private Sector: US$25 billion through PPPs (31 of 45 non-major port projects in PPP mode, worth US$5.54 billion).
• FDI: US$5 billion, with 100% FDI allowed under the automatic route. Cumulative FDI in ports was US$1.637 billion (2000-2024).

“We expect about 5 lakh crores in investments by 2030,” says TK Ramachandran, Secretary, Ministry of Ports, Shipping and Waterways. The Global Maritime India Summit 2023 aims to attract global investors, with Netherlands and Denmark expressing interest.

Next 10 Years (2030-2035)

• Total Investment: ~US$32 billion (additional to 2030)
• Breakdown:
• New Port Phases and Expansions: US$15 billion
• Galathea Bay Phases 2-3: US$5 billion to reach 10 million TEUs.
• Vadhavan Phase 2: US$3 billion for full 23 million TEUs.
• New ports (e.g., Ramayyapatnam, Honavar): US$7 billion.
• Connectivity Enhancements: US$10 billion
• Multimodal logistics parks and coastal shipping routes.
• Inland waterways expansion to 5% modal share (US$5 billion).
• Sustainability and Innovation: US$7 billion
• Renewable energy for 1,000 vessels: US$3 billion.
• Smart port technologies and automation: US$4 billion.
• Funding Sources:
• Government: US$10 billion, including asset monetization.
• Private Sector: US$15 billion via PPPs and private operators like Adani and DP World.
• FDI and Multilateral Funding: US$7 billion, with partnerships from Singapore, UAE, and World Bank.

“India’s maritime sector requires trillions of dollars of capital investment,” says an Australian trade report. “Private sector involvement through PM Gati Shakti and asset monetization will drive growth,” notes a Vision IAS report. However, “Regulatory reforms are needed to attract more WARRANTS OF ATTORNEY,” cautions a DFAT expert.

Realistic Expectations and Challenges

India’s maritime ambitions are ambitious but face significant hurdles:

• Implementation Delays: Land acquisition and environmental clearances have delayed projects like Vadhavan and Galathea Bay. “Bureaucratic bottlenecks remain a key challenge,” says an IBEF analyst.
• Operational Inefficiencies: Indian ports have a 4.5-day turnaround time for some cargo types, compared to 0.8 days in Singapore. “India’s ports tend to be small, lack draft, and are inefficient,” notes an Australian study.
• Global Competition: Singapore and Colombo offer superior connectivity and pricing. “Global hubs remain formidable competitors,” warns a Business Today analyst.
• Environmental Concerns: Dredging and port construction impact coastal ecosystems. “Sustainable development is non-negotiable,” says a Greenpeace India representative.

Realistic Projections:

• 2030: Container traffic of 28-30 million TEUs (slightly below 31.2 million due to delays), with capacity at 32-35 million TEUs. Transshipment capture at 25-30%.
• 2035: Traffic of 35-38 million TEUs, with capacity at 40-45 million TEUs. Transshipment capture at 35-40%.

“India’s maritime sector has become a cornerstone of economic resurgence,” says Sonowal. Digitalization, as outlined in Maritime India Vision 2030, could reduce logistics costs to 10-12% of GDP by 2035.

Related Themes: Sustainability, Innovation, and Geopolitics

• Sustainability: India aims to power 1,000 vessels with renewable energy by 2030, backed by US$5.75 billion in inland waterways investment. “India is committed to reducing emissions in the shipping sector,” says a Livemint report. The Harit Sagar Green Port guidelines promote eco-friendly practices.
• Innovation: The National Logistics Portal (Marine) and smart port technologies are priorities. “Technology will enhance logistics efficiency,” says a ClearIAS expert. Automation at Vizhinjam and Vadhavan will improve throughput.
• Geopolitics: Galathea Bay’s development aligns with India’s Act East Policy, countering China’s influence in the Indian Ocean. “India’s ports are not just economic assets but strategic tools,” says a ORF analyst.

Conclusion

India’s maritime sector is on a transformative path, with container traffic projected to reach 31.2 million TEUs by 2030 and 41.8 million TEUs by 2035, driven by a 5% CAGR. Port capacity is expected to grow from 25 million TEUs in 2025 to 35 million by 2030 and 45 million by 2035, supported by US$82 billion in investments. Deep draft ports like Vizhinjam, Vadhavan, and Galathea Bay will reduce reliance on foreign transshipment hubs, capturing 25-30% of cargo by 2030 and 35-40% by 2035. While challenges like inefficiencies, environmental concerns, and global competition persist, initiatives like Sagarmala and Maritime India Vision 2030 provide a robust framework. “India’s maritime legacy is as vast as its coastline, positioning it as a rising global power,” says an IBEF report. With sustained investment, regulatory reforms, and technological innovation, India can realistically emerge as a key player in global maritime trade by 2035, balancing economic growth with sustainability and strategic influence.

References

1. Logistics Insider. (2024). India’s Container Traffic Outlook 2024-2030.
2. Ministry of Ports, Shipping and Waterways. (2024). Annual Report 2023-24.
3. Sagarmala Programme. (2024). Project Status Update.
4. Maritime India Vision 2030. (2021). Ministry of Ports, Shipping and Waterways.
5. IBEF. (2024). Shipping Industry and Ports in India.
6. ClearIAS. (2024). Maritime India Vision 2030 Overview.
7. Indian Infrastructure. (2023). New Potential: Developing India as a Container Transshipment Hub.
8. Livemint. (2022). Govt Plans to Make Ports Self-Sustainable by 2030.
9. FICCI. (2025). Maritime Conference and Expo 2025 Highlights.
10. Vision IAS. (2023). Infrastructure Development in India.
11. Business Today. (2024). India’s Port Sector: Challenges and Opportunities.
12. Rau’s IAS. (2025). Port Economy Will Drive India’s Growth.
13. ICRA. (2023). Port Sector Analysis 2023.
14. WWF-India. (2024). Sustainable Port Development Guidelines.
15. ORF. (2025). India’s Maritime Strategy in the Indian Ocean

 Appendices: India Port Capacities for Bulk Cargo and Containers (2025, 2030, 2035)

Appendix A: Bulk Cargo Port Capacities (2025, 2030, 2035)

The following table lists the current and projected bulk cargo handling capacities (in Million Metric Tonnes Per Annum, MMTPA) for major and selected non-major ports in India. Bulk cargo includes commodities like coal, iron ore, petroleum, and agricultural products. Data is sourced from government reports, industry analyses, and projections based on Sagarmala Programme and Maritime India Vision 2030.

Port	State/UT	Current Capacity (2025, MMTPA)	Projected Capacity (2030, MMTPA)	Projected Capacity (2035, MMTPA)
Major Ports
Paradip Port	Odisha	150	200	250
Deendayal Port (Kandla)	Gujarat	137	180	220
Visakhapatnam Port	Andhra Pradesh	85	120	150
Chennai Port	Tamil Nadu	80	100	120
V.O. Chidambaranar (Tuticorin)	Tamil Nadu	65	85	100
Cochin Port	Kerala	60	75	90
New Mangalore Port	Karnataka	55	70	85
Mormugao Port	Goa	50	65	80
Mumbai Port	Maharashtra	45	55	65
Jawaharlal Nehru Port (JNPA)	Maharashtra	40	50	60
Syama Prasad Mookerjee (Kolkata-Haldia)	West Bengal	35	45	55
Vadhavan Port (Planned)	Maharashtra	0	100	200
Non-Major Ports
Mundra Port	Gujarat	338	400	450
Krishnapatnam Port	Andhra Pradesh	100	130	160
Gangavaram Port	Andhra Pradesh	64	80	100
Dhamra Port	Odisha	45	60	80
Total (Selected Ports)		1,350	1,765	2,165

Notes:

• Current capacities reflect 2023-2025 data from the Ministry of Ports, Shipping and Waterways and industry reports.
• Projections for 2030 and 2035 are based on Sagarmala’s target of 3,300 MMTPA total port capacity by 2030 and a 300% increase to 10,000 MMTPA by 2047, with bulk cargo accounting for ~70% of total capacity.
• Vadhavan Port’s bulk cargo capacity is expected to ramp up significantly post-2030.
• Non-major ports, particularly Mundra, dominate bulk cargo due to private investment and deeper drafts.

Appendix B: Container Port Capacities (2025, 2030, 2035)

The following table lists the current and projected container handling capacities (in Million TEUs, Twenty-foot Equivalent Units) for major and selected non-major ports in India. Projections account for new transshipment hubs and expansions under Sagarmala and Maritime India Vision 2030.

Port	State/UT	Current Capacity (2025, Million TEUs)	Projected Capacity (2030, Million TEUs)	Projected Capacity (2035, Million TEUs)
Major Ports
Jawaharlal Nehru Port (JNPA)	Maharashtra	7.5	10.0	12.0
Chennai Port	Tamil Nadu	1.6	2.5	3.0
Cochin Port	Kerala	0.6	1.0	1.5
V.O. Chidambaranar (Tuticorin)	Tamil Nadu	0.1	0.5	1.0
Syama Prasad Mookerjee (Kolkata-Haldia)	West Bengal	0.8	1.2	1.5
Visakhapatnam Port	Andhra Pradesh	0.5	1.0	1.5
Paradip Port	Odisha	0.3	0.5	0.8
Vadhavan Port (Planned)	Maharashtra	0	10.0	23.0
Vizhinjam Port	Kerala	1.0	6.2	6.2
Galathea Bay (Planned)	Andaman & Nicobar	0	4.0	10.0
Non-Major Ports
Mundra Port	Gujarat	7.8	10.0	12.0
Pipavav Port	Gujarat	1.4	2.0	2.5
Krishnapatnam Port	Andhra Pradesh	1.2	2.0	2.5
Total (Selected Ports)		22.8	50.9	77.0

Notes:

• Current capacities are based on 2023-2025 data from industry sources and the Ministry of Ports, Shipping and Waterways.
• 2030 projections reflect Sagarmala’s target to double container capacity in five years and Maritime India Vision 2030’s goal of 35 million TEUs.
• 2035 projections assume continued investment and operationalization of new ports like Vadhavan and Galathea Bay, aiming for 45 million TEUs total capacity.
• Vizhinjam’s capacity peaks at 6.2 million TEUs by 2028-29, with no further expansion planned by 2035.
• Total capacities include only listed ports; actual national totals may be higher due to smaller ports.