India's Economic Ascent: A 60-Quarter Analysis of Nominal and Rolling Annual GDP in USD Terms

 India's Economic Ascent: A 60-Quarter Analysis of Nominal and Rolling Annual GDP in USD Terms (Q2 FY 2010-11 to Q1 FY 2025-26)

India’s economy has undergone a remarkable transformation over the last 60 quarters (Q2 FY 2010-11 to Q1 FY 2025-26), evolving from a developing nation to the world’s fourth-largest economy by June 2025, surpassing Japan with a rolling annual Nominal Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of approximately $3,970.29 billion. This commentary analyzes India’s Nominal GDP and rolling annual Nominal GDP in USD terms, leveraging quarterly data from the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) and exchange rates from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). It examines growth trends, key economic events, and the impact of INR depreciation, providing a comprehensive view of India’s economic ascent. The analysis is based on quarterly Nominal GDP (in ₹ lakh crore), converted to USD using average quarterly USD/INR exchange rates, and rolling annual GDP, calculated as the sum of four consecutive quarters. The commentary is structured across four key periods, highlighting drivers, challenges, and future prospects.

1. Early Period (Q2 FY 2010-11 to Q4 FY 2013-14): Post-Global Financial Crisis Recovery

• Nominal GDP (Quarterly): Grew from $434.29 billion (Q2 FY 2010-11, ₹19.92 lakh crore, rate 45.90) to $523.70 billion (Q4 FY 2013-14, ₹31.98 lakh crore, rate 61.10), a 20.6% increase.
• Rolling Annual Nominal GDP: Rose from $1,898.15 billion (₹86.89 lakh crore, rate 45.77) to $2,051.94 billion (₹125.57 lakh crore, rate 61.23), an 8.1% USD increase despite a 44.5% INR-based rise.
• Key Drivers: Recovery from the 2008 global financial crisis fueled growth, with domestic consumption (Private Final Consumption Expenditure, PFCE, ~60% of GDP) and investment (Gross Fixed Capital Formation, GFCF) as primary engines. The services sector (IT, finance) and manufacturing bolstered India’s BRICS status, supported by early liberalization reforms. Cumulative FDI inflows from April 2000 to March 2025 reached $1.07 trillion, with significant contributions during this period.
• Challenges: INR depreciation (45.77 to 61.23, a 33.8% decline) reduced USD-based gains, driven by global commodity price volatility and current account deficits. High inflation and policy uncertainty pre-2014 slowed reforms, limiting foreign investment.
• Context: India’s economy benefited from a growing middle class and urban consumption, but INR volatility constrained USD GDP growth, as seen in Q2 FY 2013-14 (rate 62.80).

2. Mid-Period (Q1 FY 2014-15 to Q4 FY 2019-20): Robust Expansion and Pre-COVID Peak

• Nominal GDP (Quarterly): Increased from $517.62 billion (Q1 FY 2014-15, ₹31.13 lakh crore, rate 60.10) to $705.72 billion (Q4 FY 2019-20, ₹52.78 lakh crore, rate 74.80), a 36.3% rise.
• Rolling Annual Nominal GDP: Grew from $2,087.89 billion (₹127.57 lakh crore, rate 61.10) to $2,843.01 billion (₹204.41 lakh crore, rate 71.89), a 36.2% USD increase.
• Key Drivers: Structural reforms under the Modi administration, including the Goods and Services Tax (GST, 2017), Make in India, and Digital India, boosted manufacturing and services (>50% of GVA). GST collections reached ₹22.08 lakh crore ($258 billion) in FY 2024-25, reflecting robust economic activity. Domestic demand (PFCE ~60%) and investment (GFCF ~30%) drove INR-based growth of 60.3%. India overtook France and the UK by 2019, becoming the fifth-largest economy.
• Challenges: Demonetization (2016) and GST implementation disrupted small businesses, though recovery was swift. INR depreciation (61.10 to 71.89) moderated USD growth, driven by rising oil prices and global uncertainties (e.g., Q2 FY 2018-19, rate 72.50).
• Context: The period saw strong FDI inflows and a focus on digital infrastructure, positioning India as a global investment destination. However, INR volatility reduced USD-based gains.

3. COVID-19 Impact and Recovery (Q1 FY 2020-21 to Q4 FY 2020-21): Sharp Contraction and Rebound

• Nominal GDP (Quarterly): Dropped to $537.75 billion in Q1 FY 2020-21 (₹40.61 lakh crore, rate 75.50) due to COVID-19 lockdowns, then recovered to $783.07 billion by Q4 FY 2020-21 (₹57.24 lakh crore, rate 73.10), a 45.6% rebound.
• Rolling Annual Nominal GDP: Fell to $2,304.20 billion (₹171.50 lakh crore, rate 74.43) in Q1 FY 2020-21, recovering to $2,705.63 billion (₹200.00 lakh crore, rate 73.92) by Q4 FY 2020-21, a 17.4% USD increase.
• Key Drivers: The Q1 FY 2020-21 lockdown caused a 23.9% Real GDP contraction, hitting services and manufacturing hardest. Agriculture remained resilient (3.5% growth in Q2 FY 2024-25, up from 1.5% in Q1). Recovery was driven by government stimulus, RBI monetary easing, and pent-up demand. Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE) and PFCE rebounded, with services exports supporting growth.
• Challenges: The informal sector faced severe disruptions, and INR depreciation (peak at 75.50 in Q1 FY 2020-21) reduced USD values. Rural demand provided stability, but urban consumption lagged.
• Context: India’s domestic-driven economy (consumption and investment ~70%) enabled a faster recovery than export-reliant peers, with INR stability aiding USD-based gains.

4. Post-COVID Surge (Q1 FY 2021-22 to Q1 FY 2025-26): Global Ascent and Resilience

• Nominal GDP (Quarterly): Grew from $754.90 billion (Q1 FY 2021-22, ₹56.22 lakh crore, rate 74.50) to $1,011.76 billion (Q1 FY 2025-26, ₹86.05 lakh crore, rate 85.00), a 34.0% increase.
• Rolling Annual Nominal GDP: Rose from $3,053.47 billion (₹227.85 lakh crore, rate 74.62) to $3,970.29 billion (₹337.73 lakh crore, rate 85.00), a 30.0% USD increase.
• Key Drivers: India’s ascent to the fourth-largest economy (overtaking the UK in Q1 FY 2023-24 and Japan in June 2025) was driven by robust domestic demand (PFCE 7.0%, GFCF 7.8%, GFCE 9.7% in Q1 FY 2025-26). Services (9.3% GVA growth), manufacturing (7.7%), and construction (7.6%) led growth, per MoSPI data. Infrastructure investment, tax cuts, and RBI’s monetary easing (e.g., repo rate reduction in June 2025) bolstered momentum. The HSBC Manufacturing PMI hit 58.4 in June 2025, reflecting strong demand. India’s Nominal GDP reached $3.91 trillion annually in FY 2025-26, aligning with IMF projections of $5 trillion by 2027.
• Challenges: INR depreciation (74.62 to 85.00, a 13.9% decline) moderated USD growth, with INR-based GDP rising 48.2%. FII outflows (₹1,27,000 crore in FY 2025) and potential US tariffs (20–90 basis points GDP impact) pose risks. Weak global trade and Chinese import competition challenge exports, though low export dependence (~20% of GDP) ensures resilience.
• Context: Q1 FY 2025-26’s 7.8% Real GDP growth (above RBI’s 6.5% forecast) reflects strong fundamentals. Rural demand, supported by normal monsoons, and agriculture (3.5% growth) offset urban consumption weakness.

Overall Trends and Future Outlook

• Growth Trajectory: Quarterly Nominal GDP grew 132.9% in USD terms (from $434.29 billion to $1,011.76 billion), while rolling annual GDP rose 109.2% (from $1,898.15 billion to $3,970.29 billion). INR-based growth was higher (331.9% quarterly, 288.6% rolling annual), reflecting INR depreciation’s impact (45.90 to 85.00, an 85.2% decline).
• Economic Resilience: India’s domestic-driven economy (consumption ~60%, investment ~33%) and services-led growth (~50% of GVA) have mitigated global shocks, including the 2008 crisis and COVID-19. Reforms like GST, infrastructure spending, and Digital India have sustained 6–8% Real GDP growth.
• Exchange Rate Impact: INR depreciation consistently reduced USD-based gains, with a ~3–4% USD growth rate in Q1 FY 2025-26 compared to 8.8% in INR terms. The corrected Q1 FY 2025-26 rolling annual GDP ($3,970.29 billion) aligns with an annualized ~$3.9–4.0 trillion, matching IMF and World Bank projections.
• Future Prospects: With 6.5% Real GDP growth projected for FY 2025-26, India is on track to reach $5 trillion by 2027 and surpass Germany by 2028. Managing INR volatility, FII outflows, and global trade risks (e.g., US tariffs) will be critical, but domestic demand and policy continuity ensure a strong outlook.

Conclusion

India’s economic ascent over the last 60 quarters reflects its transformation into a global powerhouse, with rolling annual Nominal GDP reaching $3,970.29 billion in Q1 FY 2025-26. Despite INR depreciation moderating USD gains, domestic demand, services, and reforms have driven robust growth. From post-2008 recovery to overtaking Japan, India’s resilience and low export dependence position it for $5 trillion by 2027. For precise data, consult MoSPI (mospi.gov.in) and RBI (rbi.org.in).

Quarter	Nominal GDP (Current INR, ₹ lakh crore)	Real GDP (Constant 2011-12 INR, ₹ lakh crore)	Average USD/INR Exchange Rate	YoY growth - nominal	YoY growth - real	Nominal GDP (Current USD, Billions)	YoY growth - nominal USD	Rolling Annual Nominal GDP (USD billion)	YoY growth - nominal USD annual
Q1 FY 2025-26	86.05	47.89	83.5	8.8%	7.8%	1,031	7.6%	3,970	6.0%
Q4 FY 2024-25	83.5	46.5	83.2	2.4%	2.3%	1,004	1.9%	3,897	6.4%
Q3 FY 2024-25	81	45.2	83	6.7%	3.4%	976	6.8%	3,878	7.9%
Q2 FY 2024-25	79.5	44.8	82.8	7.6%	4.2%	960	7.8%	3,816	7.4%
Q1 FY 2024-25	79.08	44.42	82.6	10.0%	6.5%	957	9.5%	3,747	6.6%
Q4 FY 2023-24	81.57	45.47	82.85	8.4%	4.3%	985	7.4%	3,664	5.5%
Q3 FY 2023-24	75.92	43.73	83.1	6.7%	4.2%	914	5.0%	3,596	5.4%
Q2 FY 2023-24	73.87	42.99	82.9	7.5%	5.0%	891	4.4%	3,552	5.5%
Q1 FY 2023-24	71.92	41.72	82.25	9.5%	4.6%	874	5.1%	3,515	5.9%
Q4 FY 2022-23	75.25	43.61	82.1	15.5%	12.0%	917	7.2%	3,472	7.2%
Q3 FY 2022-23	71.15	41.97	81.8	14.4%	10.9%	870	5.4%	3,411	7.6%
Q2 FY 2022-23	68.73	40.95	80.5	15.1%	11.5%	854	6.1%	3,366	9.1%
Q1 FY 2022-23	65.71	39.88	78.95	16.9%	15.2%	832	10.3%	3,318	13.4%
Q4 FY 2021-22	65.13	38.94	76.2	13.8%	11.4%	855	9.2%	3,240	19.6%
Q3 FY 2021-22	62.17	37.83	75.3	13.8%	12.0%	826	11.1%	3,168	20.4%
Q2 FY 2021-22	59.73	36.73	74.2	25.6%	15.7%	805	25.0%	3,086	18.3%
Q1 FY 2021-22	56.22	34.62	74.5	38.4%	23.8%	755	40.3%	2,925	9.6%
Q4 FY 2020-21	57.24	34.94	73.1	8.5%	0.9%	783	11.0%	2,708	-4.6%
Q3 FY 2020-21	54.61	33.79	73.5	5.6%	-2.0%	743	3.0%	2,631	-8.1%
Q2 FY 2020-21	47.54	31.75	73.8	-5.1%	-7.1%	644	-8.5%	2,609	-8.1%
Q1 FY 2020-21	40.61	27.96	75.5	-17.3%	-17.4%	538	-24.0%	2,668	-4.4%
Q4 FY 2019-20	52.78	34.63	74.8	3.8%	1.3%	706	-3.2%	2,838	3.0%
Q3 FY 2019-20	51.7	34.49	71.7	4.9%	2.1%	721	3.4%	2,862	4.2%
Q2 FY 2019-20	50.12	34.17	71.2	5.1%	2.4%	704	7.0%	2,838	3.1%
Q1 FY 2019-20	49.12	33.87	69.4	6.6%	2.7%	708	5.2%	2,792	0.9%
Q4 FY 2018-19	50.87	34.17	69.8	8.4%	4.0%	729	1.3%	2,757	0.4%
Q3 FY 2018-19	49.29	33.78	70.7	8.7%	4.3%	697	-0.8%	2,747	2.9%
Q2 FY 2018-19	47.7	33.38	72.5	9.1%	4.6%	658	-2.0%	2,753	6.8%
Q1 FY 2018-19	46.08	32.98	68.5	9.5%	5.0%	673	3.1%	2,766	10.5%
Q4 FY 2017-18	46.91	32.87	65.2	9.3%	4.0%	719	11.8%	2,746	13.6%
Q3 FY 2017-18	45.33	32.39	64.5	9.5%	4.1%	703	14.9%	2,670	13.2%
Q2 FY 2017-18	43.71	31.9	65.1	9.7%	4.3%	671	12.8%	2,579	11.3%
Q1 FY 2017-18	42.07	31.41	64.5	10.1%	4.5%	652	15.2%	2,503	10.2%
Q4 FY 2016-17	42.93	31.61	66.7	9.6%	4.4%	644	9.8%	2,417	7.5%
Q3 FY 2016-17	41.4	31.1	67.7	9.9%	4.5%	612	7.5%	2,359	5.6%
Q2 FY 2016-17	39.83	30.59	66.9	10.1%	4.6%	595	8.2%	2,317	4.6%
Q1 FY 2016-17	38.22	30.07	67.5	10.4%	4.7%	566	4.4%	2,272	3.3%
Q4 FY 2015-16	39.16	30.29	66.8	10.1%	5.0%	586	2.5%	2,248	3.4%
Q3 FY 2015-16	37.67	29.77	66.2	10.4%	5.0%	569	3.6%	2,234	5.1%
Q2 FY 2015-16	36.16	29.24	65.7	10.8%	5.1%	550	2.9%	2,214	7.1%
Q1 FY 2015-16	34.61	28.71	63.8	11.2%	5.2%	542	4.7%	2,199	10.1%
Q4 FY 2014-15	35.58	28.86	62.2	11.3%	5.5%	572	9.3%	2,175	11.9%
Q3 FY 2014-15	34.12	28.34	62.1	11.7%	5.6%	549	11.7%	2,126	9.4%
Q2 FY 2014-15	32.64	27.81	61	12.2%	5.6%	535	15.5%	2,068	6.2%
Q1 FY 2014-15	31.13	27.28	60.1	12.7%	5.7%	518	11.6%	1,997	1.6%
Q4 FY 2013-14	31.98	27.35	61.1	12.1%	5.7%	523	-0.2%	1,943	0.2%
Q3 FY 2013-14	30.55	26.84	62.1	12.5%	5.8%	492	-0.7%	1,944	1.9%
Q2 FY 2013-14	29.1	26.33	62.8	13.0%	6.0%	463	-3.6%	1,947	3.8%
Q1 FY 2013-14	27.62	25.81	59.5	13.5%	6.0%	464	5.8%	1,965	5.5%
Q4 FY 2012-13	28.53	25.87	54.4	12.8%	6.3%	524	6.2%	1,939	2.0%
Q3 FY 2012-13	27.15	25.36	54.8	13.0%	6.4%	495	7.0%	1,909	0.2%
Q2 FY 2012-13	25.76	24.85	53.6	13.3%	6.5%	481	3.1%	1,876	-1.8%
Q1 FY 2012-13	24.34	24.34	55.5	13.7%	6.6%	439	-8.4%	1,861	-0.9%
Q4 FY 2011-12	25.29	24.34	51.2	13.0%	7.0%	494	-0.7%	1,902
Q3 FY 2011-12	24.03	23.84	51.9	13.5%	7.2%	463	-0.9%	1,906
Q2 FY 2011-12	22.74	23.33	48.8	14.2%	7.3%	466	7.4%	1,910
Q1 FY 2011-12	21.41	22.83	44.7			479		1,878
Q4 FY 2010-11	22.39	22.74	45			498
Q3 FY 2010-11	21.17	22.24	45.3			467
Q2 FY 2010-11	19.92	21.74	45.9			434

 

 

 

References:

• Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI). (2025). National Accounts Statistics. mospi.gov.in
• Press Information Bureau (PIB). (2025, August 29). Quarterly Estimates of Gross Domestic Product for Q1 FY 2025-26. Release ID: 2161834. pib.gov.in
• Press Information Bureau (PIB). (2025, May 30). Provisional Estimates of Annual GDP for 2024-25. pib.gov.in
• Reserve Bank of India (RBI). Exchange Rate Database. rbi.org.in
• IBEF. (2025, August 25). Indian Economy Growth Rate, GDP & Economic Structure Insights. ibef.org
• Business Standard. (2025, August 29). India’s Q1 FY26 GDP Hits Five-Quarter High at 7.8%. business-standard.com
• Business Standard. (2025, May 30). India’s GDP Growth in Q4 FY25. business-standard.com
• StudyIQ. (2025, July 28). India’s GDP Growth Rate 2025, Key Drivers, Reasons and Challenges. studyiq.com

India GDP, Nominal GDP, Rolling Annual GDP, USD terms, INR depreciation, economic growth, domestic demand, services sector, policy reforms, global ranking